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Hurricane Gert
Tropical Depression Eight formed at the 11 PM advisory on August 12, 2017 as a 35 mph tropical depression with a min pressure of 1011mb. The system crossed the Atlantic over a week or two remaining an elongated swirl, but finally developed after passing northwest of the Lesser Antilles.
At the 5 PM advisory on August 13, 2017, TD8 was upgraded to tropical storm Gert with max winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1011mb.
After a day of intensification, Gert strengthened to a category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 986 mb, making it the second hurricane of the year.
Gert continued to intensify slowly, but hit a stall after getting dry air into its core, hence keeping its winds at 75 mph for some time. After that, Gert intensified fast into a strong category 1 before jumping to a low end category 2 on August 16, 2017.
On the afternoon of August 17, 2017, Gert became an extratropical cyclone as it accelerated pole ward.
Later that day at the 5 PM advisory, Gert dissipated.
Impacts
Gert caused rough seas along the East coast of the US as well as rough seas in the path it traveled.
Which Model Won?
- ECMWF - Found the system way out, but incorrectly modeled its lifetime, making it much further back on its track. As of development, snowed a very weak system to nearly nonexistent. Weak TS after development to strong TS.
- CMC - Kept the system on the same forecast track since it came off of Africa, always having a recurve out to sea as a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm. Earned the find due to having a correct development window.
- GFS - Didn't develop the system just as much as the ECMWF did. Transitioned to stronger cat 1.
- UKMET - Little to no development, weak tropical storm.
- NAM - Moderate tropical storm, had cat 1 hurricane initially with pressures of around 970 - 980 mb. Transitioned stronger to cat 2 or 3.
- HWRF - Very strong hurricane after forming. Blew the storm up from a cat 1 to a cat 3, or even a 4 one run. Transitioned stronger to a strong cat 4 or 3.
- HMON-PARA - Low strength tropical depression or storm, transitioned to a strong cat 1 or weak 2.
End Result:
- Long - medium range :
