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tropical_depression_three [2018/07/12 15:55]
forsythsnow 		tropical_depression_three [2018/07/12 16:03] (current)
forsythsnow
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   * ECMWF - Weak TS initially, transitioned slowly to strong hurricane, between category 1 and 2, with one run showing a min pressure of 960 mb. Brushes Canada.   * ECMWF - Weak TS initially, transitioned slowly to strong hurricane, between category 1 and 2, with one run showing a min pressure of 960 mb. Brushes Canada.
  
-  * CMC - Sniffed out the system just before the GFS did. +  * CMC - Sniffed out the system just before the GFS did. Kept it a category 1 hurricane at the strongest.
  
-  * GFS - Showed a strong hurricane around a category 1 or 2 either brushing Canada or staying just offshore. Some runs brushed Massachusetts. ​+  * GFS - Showed a strong hurricane around a category 1 or 2 either brushing Canada or staying just offshore. Some runs brushed Massachusetts. Pressure in the 960 mbs.
  
   * FV3 - Weaker than the GFS and ECMWF and stays out to sea. Still becomes a category 1 hurricane with pressure around 980 mb.   * FV3 - Weaker than the GFS and ECMWF and stays out to sea. Still becomes a category 1 hurricane with pressure around 980 mb.
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 End Result: ​ End Result: ​
  
 +  * Long - Medium Range : ECMWF and GFS -  Both the GFS and the ECMWF got the intensity right and the path as well, in which it brushed Canada and stayed slightly offshore further south. The other models were way too weak in their pressure estimates or paths in addition to wind speed.
 +
 +  * Short Range : HWRF - The HWRF was just weaker than the HMON in several cases, or just stronger in the later runs. It had the pressure at a reasonable strength as well. 
 +
 +  * Strength : GFS - The GFS was more consistent with its pressure from run to run even if it was a little too strong. The Euro was much more weak than the GFS was strong in the later runs. 
 ===== Threads ===== ===== Threads =====
 [[https://​southernwx.com/​community/​threads/​hurricane-chris.406/#​post-102583|Hurricane Chris]] [[https://​southernwx.com/​community/​threads/​hurricane-chris.406/#​post-102583|Hurricane Chris]]