Hurricane Chris

Tropical Depression 3 formed at the 5 pm advisory on July 6, 2018 with winds of 30 mph and a pressure of 1016 mb off the coast of North Carolina. It remained a depression for a few days before intensifying into Tropical Storm Chris where it hovered off the coast of the Carolinas and intensified further.

At the 5 pm advisory on July 10, Chris intensified into a category 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph and a central pressure of 980 mb. Chris continued on and strengthened as soon as it began to move to the NE and peaked as a 105 mph category 2 hurricane with a central pressure of 970 mb. Chris continued on NE and barely brushed Canada.

Chris became a post-tropical remnant low on the 11 am advisory on July 12, 2018.

  • ECMWF - Weak TS initially, transitioned slowly to strong hurricane, between category 1 and 2, with one run showing a min pressure of 960 mb. Brushes Canada.
  • CMC - Sniffed out the system just before the GFS did. Kept it a category 1 hurricane at the strongest.
  • GFS - Showed a strong hurricane around a category 1 or 2 either brushing Canada or staying just offshore. Some runs brushed Massachusetts. Pressure in the 960 mbs.
  • FV3 - Weaker than the GFS and ECMWF and stays out to sea. Still becomes a category 1 hurricane with pressure around 980 mb.
  • NAVGEM - Slightly weaker than the FV3 and hits Canada. Pressure around 985 mb. Category 1 hurricane.
  • UKMET - N/A
  • HWRF - Slightly weaker than the HMON on some runs and brushes Canada, though a few runs bring it close to major hurricane strength. Pressure in the 970 mbs
  • HMON - Strong Category 2 hurricane brushes or hits Canada. Pressure min is around 963 mb.

End Result:

  • Long - Medium Range : ECMWF and GFS - Both the GFS and the ECMWF got the intensity right and the path as well, in which it brushed Canada and stayed slightly offshore further south. The other models were way too weak in their pressure estimates or paths in addition to wind speed.
  • Short Range : HWRF - The HWRF was just weaker than the HMON in several cases, or just stronger in the later runs. It had the pressure at a reasonable strength as well.
  • Strength : GFS - The GFS was more consistent with its pressure from run to run even if it was a little too strong. The Euro was much more weak than the GFS was strong in the later runs.