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potential_tropical_cyclone_nine [2017/08/31 04:34] forsythsnow [Major Hurricane Harvey] |
potential_tropical_cyclone_nine [2017/09/03 13:11] (current) forsythsnow [Which Model Won?] |
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| After completing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), Harvey strengthened more and became the first major hurricane of the year, and was predicted to be teh first one to hit the US in 12 years, since Wilma in 2005. | After completing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC), Harvey strengthened more and became the first major hurricane of the year, and was predicted to be teh first one to hit the US in 12 years, since Wilma in 2005. | ||
| - | Acer dumping tons of rain and ravaging Southeast Texas, then moving off shore and into Louisiana for a second landfall, Harvey dissipated on the evening of August 30, 2017 at 11PM. | + | Afer dumping tons of rain and ravaging Southeast Texas, then moving off shore and into Louisiana for a second landfall, Harvey had its last NHC advisory on the evening of August 30, 2017 at 11PM. |
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| + | After a few days of WPC advisories, Harvey dissipated on the 2 PM advisory, or advisory 53 after weeks of being a system. | ||
| ===== Impacts ===== | ===== Impacts ===== | ||
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| After landfall, Harvey moved very slowly inland, then towards the coast over the course of several days. Harvey came off the coast and continued the deluge of rain in Texas. After almost a week of rain, Houston area received 51.88" of rain, a CONUS record for tropical cyclone rainfall. Harvey made its second US landfall in the morning of August 30, 2017 as a 50 mph tropical storm and dumped flooding rain into Louisiana and created more severe weather throughout Louisiana and Mississippi. | After landfall, Harvey moved very slowly inland, then towards the coast over the course of several days. Harvey came off the coast and continued the deluge of rain in Texas. After almost a week of rain, Houston area received 51.88" of rain, a CONUS record for tropical cyclone rainfall. Harvey made its second US landfall in the morning of August 30, 2017 as a 50 mph tropical storm and dumped flooding rain into Louisiana and created more severe weather throughout Louisiana and Mississippi. | ||
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| + | Harvey's impacts caused gas prices to spike almost a quarter nationally, and shut down the colonial pipeline as well for days, and the flood relief efforts continue on as of September 3, 2017, with many estimates for the storm rising, potentially making Harvey the second or most costly hurricane in US history. | ||
| ===== Which Model Won? ===== | ===== Which Model Won? ===== | ||
| **Part 1*** | **Part 1*** | ||
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| End Result: | End Result: | ||
| - | * Short - Medium range : HMON and HWRF - Due to the storm forming and hitting land within three days, the Long - medium range category doesn't exist. | + | * Short - Medium range : HMON and HWRF - Due to the storm forming and hitting land within three days, the Long - medium range category doesn't exist. The ECMWF did okay with the track, but ultimately failed with the strength and timing, as well as the strength, while the HWRF and HMON did well. The HWRF did better on track, while the HMON did better on strength, but overall, they did well. The GFS was too dissipating as was the CMC. |
| - | * Strength - HMON and HWRF - | + | * Strength - HMON and HWRF - The HMON and HWRF absolutely did amazing with this storm. It predicted that Harvey would blow up into a cat 4 while other models didn't, except for the NAM 3KM, which was too strong. The European model did horrible, as did the CMC and GFS. The GFS was the closest in third place. |
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| ===== Threads ===== | ===== Threads ===== | ||
| - | [[https://southernwx.com/community/threads/ptc-9.219/|Hurricane Harvey]] | + | * [[https://southernwx.com/community/threads/ptc-9.219/|Hurricane Harvey]] |
| + | * [[https://southernwx.com/community/threads/harvey-severe-weather-threat-aug-31-sep-1.230/|Harvey Severe Weather Threat (Aug 31 - Sep 1)]] | ||
| ===== Storm Images ===== | ===== Storm Images ===== | ||
