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potential_tropical_cyclone_three [2017/06/24 17:29] forsythsnow [Which Model Won?] |
potential_tropical_cyclone_three [2017/08/17 17:25] (current) forsythsnow [Storm Images] |
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| Sever weather was also an issue. On June 22, 2017, Birmingham area received several tornado warnings, but one tornado, which was conformed an EF-2. Other warnings were issued across Northern Georgia, but none produced tornadoes. | Sever weather was also an issue. On June 22, 2017, Birmingham area received several tornado warnings, but one tornado, which was conformed an EF-2. Other warnings were issued across Northern Georgia, but none produced tornadoes. | ||
| + | Cindy killed two people, one a 10 year old by when he was struck by a log while walking on the beach with is family, and a man who died on a Texas beach. | ||
| ===== Which Model Won? ===== | ===== Which Model Won? ===== | ||
| * ECMWF - supported a solution that kept the storm weak early on and took it across the Yucatan Peninsula into the lower Gulf, then into Mexico. It corrected itself to Texas around Houston the day the system formed with a hard right hook towards North Georgia and Southeast Tennessee. Still kept it relatively weak. | * ECMWF - supported a solution that kept the storm weak early on and took it across the Yucatan Peninsula into the lower Gulf, then into Mexico. It corrected itself to Texas around Houston the day the system formed with a hard right hook towards North Georgia and Southeast Tennessee. Still kept it relatively weak. | ||
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| End Result: | End Result: | ||
| * Long range : CMC and GFS - The CMC and GFS found the storm well out into their runs, even towards the ends of their runs, while the ECMWF didn't pick up on it until it was close to forming. The ECMWF kept the storm south and into Mexico, while the GFS and CMC took it into Mobile, Alabama area. This was closer than what the ECMWF was showing since the ECMWF has a left turn versus a right one. Ultimately, all the models settled on a Louisiana/Texas border landfall before it made landfall there. | * Long range : CMC and GFS - The CMC and GFS found the storm well out into their runs, even towards the ends of their runs, while the ECMWF didn't pick up on it until it was close to forming. The ECMWF kept the storm south and into Mexico, while the GFS and CMC took it into Mobile, Alabama area. This was closer than what the ECMWF was showing since the ECMWF has a left turn versus a right one. Ultimately, all the models settled on a Louisiana/Texas border landfall before it made landfall there. | ||
| - | * Short range - HWRF and GFDL - These models run for tropical storms, and specialize in tropical cyclones. These two right away went towards the Euro, but rather were further North. They quickly went for Louisiana most runs after that, beating the NAM obviously since the NAM is a Mesoscale model. The NAM was close on location however, but was still a good 50 - 100 miles off. | + | |
| + | * Short range - HWRF and GFDL - These models run for tropical storms, and specialize in tropical cyclones. These two right away went towards the Euro, but rather were further North. They quickly went for Louisiana most runs after that, beating the NAM obviously since the NAM is a Mesoscale model. The NAM was close on location however, but was still a good 50 - 100 miles off. | ||
| * Strength : CMC - Sounds odd, but the CMC got the max strength closer than the GFS further out, taking it to around 990mb at its weakest, which was closer than the ECMWF and GFS with pressures staying above 1000mb in the runs. | * Strength : CMC - Sounds odd, but the CMC got the max strength closer than the GFS further out, taking it to around 990mb at its weakest, which was closer than the ECMWF and GFS with pressures staying above 1000mb in the runs. | ||
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| ===== Threads ===== | ===== Threads ===== | ||
| * [[https://southernwx.com/community/threads/potential-tropical-cyclone-three.198/page-7|Tropical Storm Cindy]] | * [[https://southernwx.com/community/threads/potential-tropical-cyclone-three.198/page-7|Tropical Storm Cindy]] | ||
| + | * [[https://southernwx.com/community/threads/the-cindy-model-war.201/#post-32526|The Cindy Model War]] | ||
| ===== Storm Images ===== | ===== Storm Images ===== | ||
| {{:ptc3.jpg?200 |}} {{:goes17422017171fwz4gs.jpg?200 |}} {{:cindy21morning.jpg?200|}} {{:ganimmhyoxp50.jpg?200|}}{{:ganimpl0bi81.jpg?200|}} {{:ganim4nogsc5.jpg?200|}} {{:ganim4nogsc50.jpg?200|}} | {{:ptc3.jpg?200 |}} {{:goes17422017171fwz4gs.jpg?200 |}} {{:cindy21morning.jpg?200|}} {{:ganimmhyoxp50.jpg?200|}}{{:ganimpl0bi81.jpg?200|}} {{:ganim4nogsc5.jpg?200|}} {{:ganim4nogsc50.jpg?200|}} | ||
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| + | [[potential_tropical_cyclone_two|← Tropical Storm Bret]] | ||
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| + | [[tropical_depression_4|TD 4 →]] | ||
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