Hurricane Florence

Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 formed at the 11 am advisory on August 30, 2018 just off the coast of Africa with a maximum wind speed of 30 mph and a central pressure of 1007 mb. It was upgraded to TD 6 on August 31 at the 5 PM update, then Tropical Storm Florence at 5 AM on September 1, 2018. Florence strengthened into a 60 mph tropical storm with pressure of 999 mb before weakening to 50 mph the morning of September 2, 2018.

Florence was upgraded to a hurricane at the 11 am advisory on September 4, 2018 with winds of 75 mph and a pressure of 990 mb.

On its 77th advisory at 11 AM on September 18, 2018, Florence dissipated into a remnant low.

• ECMWF - Strong hurricane with recurve potential, but a path to the SE to NE US not out of the question.

• CMC - First to show a defined closed low, strong TS but mid Atlantic recurve.

• GFS - Strong hurricane, potentially major, recurving earlier than CMC.

• FV3 - Stronger recurve sooner than the GFS. Definite sustained major hurricane slowly moving north in the Central Atlantic.

• NAVGEM - Strong TS or weak cat 1 moving generally west. Possible chance of path to US.

• UKMET - Generally further south than other models, but similar to the ECMWF, but weaker around TS strength.

• HWRF - Cat 1 or 2 recurving Mid-Atlantic.

• HMON - Lack of curve due to Florence remaining a weak depression or becoming a strong TS.

• ECMWF - Direct NC/SC hit as a category 3 or 4 hurricane. Ensembles head either into NC or up its coast, or into SC to N FL. Pressure min around 937 mb.

• CMC - Weaker Cat 2 hurricane at most into NC to S GA. Could possibly be cat 3 or 4 based on environment.

• GFS - Scrape the East coast from NC northward then go OTS with the strength of a category 5 hurricane. Ensembles relatively OTS to scraping the coast. Pressure nears 925 mb.

• FV3 - Up the East coast for the most part or scraping NC with direct landfall around cat 3 or 4. Pressure in 960 mbs.

• NAVGEM - Cat 2 or 3 on course for NC. Pressure in 970 mbs.

• UKMET - Cat 3 or 4 headed for SC or GA. Pressure in 940 mbs to 950 mbs. Furthest south model.

• ICON -NC landfall as cat 3 or weak 4 and scrapes the East Coast afterward. Pressure in 950 mbs.

• HWRF - Cat 4 or 5 headed for S NC or Upstate SC. Pressure in 910 mbs to 930 mbs.

• HMON - Cat 3 or 4 with pressure in 940 mbs headed towards NC at almost a straight line.

End Result:

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