====== Hurricane Florence ====== Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 formed at the 11 am advisory on August 30, 2018 just off the coast of Africa with a maximum wind speed of 30 mph and a central pressure of 1007 mb. It was upgraded to TD 6 on August 31 at the 5 PM update, then Tropical Storm Florence at 5 AM on September 1, 2018. Florence strengthened into a 60 mph tropical storm with pressure of 999 mb before weakening to 50 mph the morning of September 2, 2018. Florence was upgraded to a hurricane at the 11 am advisory on September 4, 2018 with winds of 75 mph and a pressure of 990 mb. On its 77th advisory at 11 AM on September 18, 2018, Florence dissipated into a remnant low. ===== Impacts ===== ===== Which Model Won? ===== * ECMWF - Strong hurricane with recurve potential, but a path to the SE to NE US not out of the question. * CMC - First to show a defined closed low, strong TS but mid Atlantic recurve. * GFS - Strong hurricane, potentially major, recurving earlier than CMC. * FV3 - Stronger recurve sooner than the GFS. Definite sustained major hurricane slowly moving north in the Central Atlantic. * NAVGEM - Strong TS or weak cat 1 moving generally west. Possible chance of path to US. * UKMET - Generally further south than other models, but similar to the ECMWF, but weaker around TS strength. * HWRF - Cat 1 or 2 recurving Mid-Atlantic. * HMON - Lack of curve due to Florence remaining a weak depression or becoming a strong TS. === Mid - Atlantic Update === * ECMWF - Direct NC/SC hit as a category 3 or 4 hurricane. Ensembles head either into NC or up its coast, or into SC to N FL. Pressure min around 937 mb. * CMC - Weaker Cat 2 hurricane at most into NC to S GA. Could possibly be cat 3 or 4 based on environment. * GFS - Scrape the East coast from NC northward then go OTS with the strength of a category 5 hurricane. Ensembles relatively OTS to scraping the coast. Pressure nears 925 mb. * FV3 - Up the East coast for the most part or scraping NC with direct landfall around cat 3 or 4. Pressure in 960 mbs. * NAVGEM - Cat 2 or 3 on course for NC. Pressure in 970 mbs. * UKMET - Cat 3 or 4 headed for SC or GA. Pressure in 940 mbs to 950 mbs. Furthest south model. * ICON -NC landfall as cat 3 or weak 4 and scrapes the East Coast afterward. Pressure in 950 mbs. * HWRF - Cat 4 or 5 headed for S NC or Upstate SC. Pressure in 910 mbs to 930 mbs. * HMON - Cat 3 or 4 with pressure in 940 mbs headed towards NC at almost a straight line. End Result: ===== Threads ===== ===== Storm Images ===== [[subtropical_storm_ernesto|← Tropical Storm Ernesto]] ;;# [[potential_tropical_cyclone_seven_2018|Tropical Storm Gordon →]] ;;#