Tropical Storm Emily

Tropical storm Emily started out as Invest 98L, which formed in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico on July 29, 2017, as a low off of a cold front that dove into the Gulf, which is considered uncommon for the time of year. In the early morning of July 31, 2017, Tropical Depression 6 formed not far off the coast of the Tampa Bay area in Florida with sustained winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1008mb.

At 8 am, it strenghtened into Tropical Storm Emily with max sustained winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1006mb.

This storm jumped from a low risk to a medium risk just before being named a depression, making it the fastest developed storm of the year as of its formation.

Heavy rain is expected throughout Central Florida as a result of landfall, which is expected to be in the afternoon of July 31, 2017.

At 10:45 a.m. on July 31, 2017, Emily made landfall on Anna Maria Island with winds of 45 mph and a min pressure of 1005mb.

• ECMWF - Developed the system very weakly, but only had real development once in the Atlantic, so too late of development.

• CMC - Developed the storm in the right area, and maintained a low through the Atlantic after taking it up through the Southeast early on. However, it sniffed the storm first.

• GFS - Saw a weak low, but didn't do anything with it.

• NAVGEM - Also sniffed out the low, but didn't as much as the CMC, nor did it keep it alive and on the right track.

• NAM - Sniffed it out as soon as it could, and had proper pressure, though it went a little north early on.

• UKMET - N/A, but likely like the ECMWF.

• HWRF - Took the storm along proper path as soon as early initialization happened.

• HWRF-PARA - Took the storm North, instead of into the coast of Florida.

• HMON-PARA - Followed the same as the HWRF, but winds were slightly weaker, so not as accurate.

End Result:

• Long range :

• Short range :

• Strength :

Tropical Storm Emily