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tropical_storm_don [2017/07/25 01:37] forsythsnow |
tropical_storm_don [2017/08/17 17:23] (current) forsythsnow [Storm Images] |
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| ===== Which Model Won? ===== | ===== Which Model Won? ===== | ||
| - | * ECMWF - Early on expected no storm to form, but became aware of a weak system a couple of days before formation. North of the Islands, then into Florida very weak. | + | * ECMWF - Suppressed the system too much, never developing it into anything. |
| - | * CMC - Developed the system early on and kept its strength, and developed it into a stronger storm later on, pretty much a hurricane or strong tropical storm recurving out to sea. | + | * CMC - Saw the storm, but not before the GFS-PARA. Developed it slightly, but not much. |
| - | * GFS - Sniffed out the storm from the end of its runs, but made it a very strong storm either hitting the Eastern Seaboard or recurving. It recurved on more runs than it did hit land. It changed the system to weaker a couple of days before it formed. Weak out to sea, or very weak into Florida. | + | * GFS - Saw the storm, but made it way too strong. |
| - | * GFS-PARA - Maintained the same track as the GFS, but stayed weak most runs except a few which it strengthened into a tropical storm. | + | * GFS-PARA - Correct on intensity, though late on finding it. |
| * NAVGEM - Weak system the whole time, but took the storm south of the Islands instead of north. | * NAVGEM - Weak system the whole time, but took the storm south of the Islands instead of north. | ||
| - | * UKMET - Weak system either south of the Islands or north of them. Changed to strengthen the storm close to Florida, then more in the Gulf after crossing. | + | * UKMET - N/A |
| - | * HWRF - Weak system, but relative to what the storm was pressure wise, but making it a minimal tropical storm before formation. | + | * HWRF - Too strong. |
| - | * GFDL - Weak system, practically dissipated. | + | * HMON-PARA - Too strong as well. |
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| + | End Result: Though the GFS found Don first with the CMC trailing behind it, it failed in overblowing intensity, while the ECMWF suppressed the storm too much. The HMON, HWRF and its new PARA did as well. However, the GFS-PARA kept intensity low enough, but high enough to take the win. | ||
| - | End Result: Tropical Depression 4 dissipated before impacts occurred to any region, so the ECMWF won since it kept the system relatively weak the entire time while the others blew the storm up. Unless the storm re-intensifies, the ECMWF takes the win. However, for finding the storm far out, the GFS gets a bit of credit for discovery. | ||
| ===== Threads ===== | ===== Threads ===== | ||
| - | [[http://southernwx.com/community/threads/tropical-depression-four.203/|Tropical Depression 4]] | + | [[https://southernwx.com/community/threads/tropical-storm-don.210/|Tropical Storm Don]] |
| ===== Storm Images ===== | ===== Storm Images ===== | ||
| N/A | N/A | ||
| + | |||
| + | [[tropical_depression_4|← TD 4]] | ||
| + | |||
| + | [[tropical_storm_emily|Tropical Storm Emily →]] | ||
| + | |||
