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potential_tropical_cyclone_fifteen [2017/09/16 14:36] forsythsnow created |
potential_tropical_cyclone_fifteen [2017/09/27 13:46] forsythsnow [Which Model Won?] |
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| - | ====== Storm Name or Depression Info Here ====== | + | ====== Major Hurricane Maria ====== |
| Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 formed on the 11 am advisory of September 16, 2017, with sustained winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1009 mb. | Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 formed on the 11 am advisory of September 16, 2017, with sustained winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1009 mb. | ||
| + | PTC 15 was upgraded to TD 15 at 2 pm, then Tropical storm Maria on the 5 pm advisory, aimed at Puerto Rico to become a major hurricane. | ||
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| + | At 3 pm on September 17, 2017, Maria was upgraded to a cat 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph and a pressure of 986 mb. | ||
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| + | After a period of Rapid Intensification on the afternoon of September 18, 2017, Maria became a cat 3 with winds of 125 mph and a pressure of 956 mb. | ||
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| + | At 7:45 PM, Maria was upgraded to a category 5 hurricane, being the second one of the year with 160 mph winds and a 925 mb pressure. | ||
| ===== Impacts ===== | ===== Impacts ===== | ||
| + | Hurricane warnings were issued for the Lesser Antilles, the US and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. | ||
| + | At 9:35 PM on September 18, 2017, Maria made landfall as a 160 mph category 5 hurricane on Dominica. | ||
| + | Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico at 6:15 AM on September 20, 2016 as a 155 mph cat 4. | ||
| ===== Which Model Won? ===== | ===== Which Model Won? ===== | ||
| - | * ECMWF - | + | * ECMWF - Major hurricane hitting or just passing through Greater Antilles, then curving OTS mostly or going into the NE or Southeast. |
| - | * CMC - | + | * CMC - Anywhere from OTS as a cat 1 to into the Southeast as a Cat 1. |
| - | * GFS - | + | * GFS - Cat 2 in the Caribbean going just south of Puerto Rico and then into Hispaniola. Landfalls for the US vary from North Florida to the Mid- Atlantic. |
| - | * NAVGEM - | + | * NAVGEM - Tropical storm into the Greater Antilles. |
| - | * UKMET - | + | * UKMET - Cat 1 or 2 hurricane along same path as ECMWF and GFS. |
| - | * HWRF - | + | * HWRF - Strong Category 4 in the Caribbean striking Puerto Rico form the south, but a bit slower than the HMON. |
| - | * HMON - | + | * HMON - Strong Category 4 in the Caribbean striking Puerto Rico form the south of Hispaniola. |
| End Result: | End Result: | ||
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| + | * Long - medium range : | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Short Range : | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Strength : | ||
| ===== Threads ===== | ===== Threads ===== | ||
